A goat herding business facing higher payroll costs from a legislative bill turned to prediction market platform Kalshi to hedge and help offset the possible expense.
Tim Arrowsmith, owner of Western Grazers in California, estimates that he pays at least $70,000 per year for each herder when factoring in workers' flight tickets and visa costs. The company, whose goats eat vegetation to help prevent wildfires, has about 4,000 animals and eight herders, who are each paid $60,000 a year.
Arrowsmith was concerned that his annual labor costs could rise to as much as $240,000 per herder after a California wage exemption expired on June 30. This means goat herders must abide by a 2016 assembly bill instead and be paid a set wage for being on-call 24 hours a day, which comes out to about $20,000 a month for each worker. That could cost upwards of $240,000 a year per herder, according to estimates from the California Farm Bureau.
The 2016 bill excludes sheep herders from higher wages, despite stakeholders finding the working conditions for both sheep and goat herders overlap, according to a 2026, state-mandated study from the University of California, Davis.
