State Rep. Francesca Hong was supposed to win Tuesday's Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by around 20 percentage points, according to the latest public polling. Instead, the Democratic socialist lost by less than 1 percentage point.
Hong's stunning loss to the more moderate Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley is the latest in a string of massive polling misses in primary contests for the 2026 midterm elections. The misses come as more money than ever is flowing into the electoral process, underscored by the emergence of prediction markets opening up widespread betting on elections.
In Minnesota on Tuesday night, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan defeated Rep. Angie Craig, D-Minn., by nearly 20 percentage points despite some recent polls of the Democratic Senate race showing a tight contest. Last week in Michigan, Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed won his primary by only 1 percentage point after polls had him up double digits on Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich.
The polling errors are coming as progressives in the Democratic Party surge in primary elections across the country, potentially upending how one of the major U.S. political parties approaches the economy. Hong, a democratic socialist, was pushing a far-left agenda that included government-run grocery stores, higher taxes on the rich and taxpayer-subsidized childcare.
